Conservation Northwest

Getting wilder Wolves, Deer, Moose & Elk... Jay Kehne Outreach associate, jay@conservationnw.org Doing the math: One hunter's perspective Here on the east side of the mountains, there's been a lot of talk about how wolves might affect Washington's deer, elk, and moose populations. Lots of folks are throwing around numbers about elk herds in Montana or deer populations in Idaho. Discovering the truth depends on how you do the math. What makes sense is to check where these figures originated and then do the math yourself. Carrying capacity In Idaho today, 23 of the 29 elk management units are at or above management objectives set by the Idaho Fish and Game for elk numbers. Those objectives are set based on what habitat is available—the carrying capacity—for producing the browse necessary to support deer and elk on a given unit of land. One of the areas in Idaho often cited that is not above targeted numbers of elk is the Lochsa. In the late 1970s and early '80s, the Lochsa was home to about 5,000 elk; as of 2011, numbers are below 2,000. Wolves moved into the area sometime after their release into Yellowstone and central Idaho in 1996; there are currently approximately 1,200 wolves in Idaho. Simple math would say wolves are responsible for this loss. But the Lochsa has a long history of fluctuating elk populations, dating back to the 1860s when hungry prospectors helped completely eradicate elk (and wolves) from the West. Indeed, very few elk were seen between 1861 and 1930. Elk numbers rebounded with the setting aside of game preserves as well as massive revegetation following large forest fires that burned between 1910 and 1934, opening up thousands of acres of prime elk habitat. As elk numbers grew and with no wolves to kill the older, nonreproductive numbers, hunters got used to large numbers of elk and very easy pickings. With a 36% hunter success rate in 1948, thus started and continued the "elk nirvana" cited by wildlife biologist Oz Garton (see our spring/summer 2011 newsletter). But these high elk populations were hit by severe winters. Lands were browsed to stubble and timber stand grew dense again, setting the stage for dramatic elk declines, even before wolves entered the scene. Wolves certainly affect ungulate populations, however in most cases the effects are minor and need to be compared to whether the prey population exists at or above the carrying capacity of the habitat available. In fact, wolves are known to have a positive effect on the overall health of the habitat—which can heal from overbrowsing, and the health of the herd—which becomes more productive when older weaker cows are removed from the population. Elk cows produce calves for up to 10 years, yet they often live up to 18 years. When wolves prey on older, non-calving cow elk that are using up forage, cow-to-calf ratios and elk habitat both improve. 12 Idaho has about 105,000 elk, which is at or slightly above the state game management objective. Montana has about 145,000 elk which is 14% above the objective, and Wyoming has about 95,000 elk, also 14% above the objective. Even with wolves— elk and deer populations are well above carrying capacity. Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation figures from 1994 (prewolf ) and 2008 show that elk hunter success in Idaho was 21% then and 22% now. In Montana, hunter success figures were 16.5% and 21.5% and in Wyoming, 44% and 40%, respectively. A Pacific Northwest coastal wolf peers down from its rock perch on the edge of dense western red cedar rainforest in Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia. © David Moskowitz Hunters are getting their elk, with wolves and without. If wolves really are "decimating" elk, as is claimed in some hunting blogging sites, then why are harvest numbers the same or better after wolves came on the scene? And if 4,000 wolves in the Great Lakes Region haven't changed deer densities or annual hunter harvest success rate since 1987, why should hunters worry about 1,500 wolves spread over five western states? That is, as long as you do the math correctly. Continued next page Fall 2011www.conservationnw.org

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