Conservation Northwest

Conservation Northwest updates Danna Bowers Wolf policy intern, wolf-intern@conservationnw.org A look at the facts in Washington Of wolves, deer, and elk Common ground may be scarce in debates over wolf recovery these days—but when it comes to how wolves and ungulates interact, something we can all agree on is that wolves do indeed eat other wildlife like deer, elk, and moose. Disagreement pops up, however, when interpreting what the numbers actually tell us about wolf interactions with ungulates and other predators. Some people believe that wolves are driving down ungulate numbers, and thereby depressing hunter success. But a closer look at the numbers and recent studies on wolf, ungulate, and other predator interactions tells another story. We wondered, what should we really be worried about when it comes to deer and elk in Washington State? Today, there are 62,000 elk in ten main herds, and most herds are still increasing in size. In 2012, numbers of elk in Washington were 12% higher than Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife's objectives. Today, hunters account for the highest mortality of these elk, with 7,000 taken annually. Using aerial and ground monitoring combined with population models, WDFW estimates there are 300,000 to 320,000 deer across Washington. White-tail and black-tail populations are increasing, but mule deer have been declining since 2006—well before 2008 when wolves started migrating on their own into Washington from British Columbia and Idaho. Our mule deer numbers were on the decline well before the natural return of wolves. If wolves aren't causing the decline, what is? Mule deer populations have been dropping for several reasons. Since the late 1990s, lower grain and alfalfa production, as well as outbreaks of a fatal epizootic hemorrhagic disease, led to declines. Things worsened with arrival of a European lice species that causes hair loss syndrome in many deer and is especially harmful to fawns. Hunter harvest statistics show that the mule deer in Yakima County have declined by about 50% since the arrival of the lice in 2006. Meanwhile, from 2006 to 2010, particularly severe winters have also taken a toll on deer. Extreme winter temperatures harm deer and longlasting snows can bury essential deer browse. Logging, fire suppression, and urban development have also diminished the amount of food and quality of habitat. Higher numbers of deer where people live result in more deer killed both legally (e.g., as a response to property damage) and illegally (poached). Bears, cougars, and coyotes also prey on elk and deer and their fawns. Wolf predation can lower fawn survival in areas where the predator-to-prey ratios are high; though studies elsewhere suggest that these populations are more affected by other predators than by wolves. Ungulate population trends are inconsistent across state borders. Until recently, Idaho's elk were going down while deer populations were going up. However, 2013 elk surveys 12 Spring-Summer 2013 Thanks to Aparna Varadharajan for creating the infographic. designpointers.com in Idaho point toward an increase in elk brought about by fair weather and fewer elk killed by hunters. Deep, long-lasting winter snows, exceptionally dry summers, and a lengthening of the fire season have worked together to reduce the numbers of elk for the past couple decades in the wilderness areas of central Idaho and western Montana. Wolf numbers are high in these areas too, but are even higher in areas with herds that are growing and where hunting records show an excellent elk hunt. Declines in forage quality and abundance within historic habitat areas can also push elk and deer into new locations. Wolves can also influence the types of habitat ungulates use. People's perceptions can be that deer and elk are gone, but they have often simply moved to places with better browse. Some hunters are having difficulty finding and harvesting deer and elk, while other landowners are overrun and need special removal permits. Even with wolves back, the numbers of deer and elk are higher now in Washington than they've been in decades, and hunter harvest of deer and elk in northeast Washington (where the majority of the state's wolf packs live) has remained relatively steady as wolves moved into the region over the past five years. This past year, Conservation Northwest wolf policy interns Danna Bowers and Jamie Sandberg have conducted a thorough survey of the status of deer and elk in Washington and the Rocky Mountain states. Expect to see the final report this fall. conservationnw.org

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